My previous posting, “How Donald Trump Wins with No Contested Convention”, walked through the next 14 contests (including New York), showing a path to victory for Donald Trump.  I was purposely cautious with New York and the other North Eastern states.  That path to victory included only 68 delegates from New York, but as we all saw, Trump did much better, getting 89 (maybe 90) of the 95 delegates.  This new walk through will attempt to guess how his campaigns is figuring 1,400 delegates before the convention.

How the Presidential Primary Race is Going So Far

Just as a quick refresher, the current layout is as follows:

The big difference between New York and Wisconsin is that Trump had supporters turn out in Wisconsin.  Trump received almost 400K votes in Wisconsin, but in New York Cruz hardly broke 125K.

Donald Trump Will Sweep the April 26th Primaries

Tuesday, April 26 there are five more contests.  All of them are in the North East.  Since Trump has outperformed the polling data in New York (+7%), Massachusetts (+4%), and New Hampshire (+4%), I am going to assume that Trump will do better in those states then current polling.

• Connecticut – 28 delegates, Trump polling at 49%
  • If Trump receives more than 50%, he wins 13 delegates
  • There are 5 CDs (congressional districts) with 3 delegates that go to the winner of the district. I am guessing Trump wins them all.
• Delaware – 16 Winner take all delegates, Trump polling at 55%
• Maryland – 38 delegates, Trump polling at 41%
  • 14 delegates go to the winner of the state.
  • There are 8 CDs with 3 delegates each that go to the winner of the district. I am guessing Trump gets 6 of the 8 districts.
• Pennsylvania – 71 delegates, Trump polling at 44%
  • 17 of these delegates go to whoever wins the state.
  • 54 delegates are voted on directly (separate from the presidential candidates). These delegates are considered “unbound”, but many have declared their support Trump or will pledge to do the will of the voters in the district or state.  I am figuring 27 for Trump
• Rhode Island – 19 delegates, Trump is polling at 43% (only one poll from Feb 23).
  • 10 State wide delegates based on the % of vote you get (if you exceed the 10% threshold).
  • 2 congressional districts (3 delegates each) and 3 RNC delegates (Trump 6 of the 9)
    • There is a threshold of 10%
    • The winner gets 2 delegates
    • 2^nd place gets 1 delegate

At this point Trump now has increased his lead substantially over Cruz.  It was previously mathematically impossible for Cruz to reach 1237, but now he needs 166 more delegates then whats available:

After the North East States, Cruz Support Will Weaken

Tuesday, May 3

• Indiana – 57 delegates, Trump is polling at 39% (Cruz is 32%).
  • The statewide winner receives 30 delegates
  • The winner of each of the 9 congressional districts receives 3 delegates, I am figuring Trump winning 6 of the 9 districts (18 delegates)

Tuesday, May 10

• Nebraska – 36 delegates, no polls
  • The statewide winner receives all 36 delegates
  • At this stage in the race, given Trumps overwhelming lead, a chunk Cruz supporters will either be sick of their candidate or have little inspiration to vote, giving Trump a victory
• West Virginia – 34 Delegates, Trump polling at 40% (in early Feb)
  • This is a system where you vote for the delegate similar to Pennsylvania but weirder, I am figuring Trump getting 22 of the 34

Tuesday, May 17

• Oregon – 28 delegates, no polling
  • The delegates are proportional to the total vote %, it is also a by mail election. Trump gets ~40% of the vote = ~12 delegates

Tuesday, May 25

• Washington – 44 delegates, no polling
  • 14 delegates are proportional to the state totals with a 20% threshold. If Cruz fails to get 20%, because of his new strategy with Kasich, Trump and Kasich would split these
  • 30 delegates are given to the winner (+50%) of each congressional district (CD) or if a candidate fails to get over 50%, 2 delegates to the CD winner and 1 to the second place. These I am splitting between Trump and Kasich as well (15 each)

Next we are at the last set of primaries, June 7.  Consider where each candidate sits at this point:

Tuesday, June 7:  I finally get to vote in California!  Remember, the Inland Empire supports Donald Trump!

Going into these elections Trump almost doubles Cruz in delegates and he also needs less than half of the remaining delegates, only 41% of them (although New Jersey is 51 delegate winner take all, he could win New Jersey and 41% of the California delegates and lose everything else and still hit the number), but for fun lets walk through it.

• New Jersey – 51 delegates, Trump is polling at 52%
  • Winner take all
• New Mexico – 24 delegates, Trump polling at 24 (from mid February)
  • All the delegates are allocated proportionally with a 15% threshold. I am splitting between Cruz and Trump
• South Dakota – 29 delegates, no polling
  • This is a winner take all, I am going out on a limb, because of the dying enthusiasm for Cruz, Trump will win. Note, I am not arguing all Cruz supporters will stay home, but a enough will because they see no path to victory for Ted.
• Montana – 27 delegates, no polling
  • Also a winner take all and I put Trump as winning for the same reason as South Dakota
• California – 172 delegates, Trump polling at 44% (average), but most recent polls have him at 49%
  • 13 delegates to the winner of the state
  • 159 delegates in the congressional districts. 3 delegates to the winner of each of the 53 districts, polling is good for Trump in each district, but maybe he will lose a couple?  I am giving 5 districts to Ted and 5 to Kasich.

The final tally looks like:

Trump has 1375.  Also remember, by this time he will have roughly 4.5M more votes than Cruz.