Hillary Clinton is Polling Poorly Among Black and White Voters
Before I get in to the recent polls in Michigan, a little back-ground on presidential elections in the state.
A few observations on these numbers:
- Traditionally Democrats have had the black vote locked up
- 2004 and 2008 had similar turnout, 82% white, ~12% black
- In 2012, Obama won re-election (nationwide) by mobilizing the black vote
- In 2012: ~750K black people voted in MI
- In 2008: ~600K black people voted in MI
Also notice, the votes peaked in 2008 due to the populist turnout for Obama. Obama won white and black votes with high turnout, in the 2004 and 2012 elections Republicans won the white vote:
My theories for Michigan are:
- Hillary Clinton will NOT get 90%+ of the black vote
- Black turnout will be the traditional 12%, not the 2012 peak of 16%.
- Hillary will not get the traditional 45%-50% of the white vote which Democrats usually enjoy, Trump will dominate with white voters (the Michael Moore effect)
Adjusting the averages, giving the undecided voters to Trump shows the following:
*Note “other”, non-white and non-black historically make up about 5% of the vote and roughly vote 60% Democrat to 30% Republican.
Modeling those %’s based on 2012 or 2004 turnout, you get a Trump win, by about 100K votes:
The fact that these polls have Clinton so low among support with whites (34%, 42%, 33%) and that these polls show an average of 12% of voters going with a 3rd party causes me to believe that the final result won’t even be that close. Remember the now famous Michael Moore video, a theory I have heard before (and not so full of f-bombs), how many of those voters are going to vote for Trump? The other curve ball, unless it is a total flop, the FBI/Clinton email news, I prepared this before that news broke. Either way, 36% of the white vote with low black turnout means you will loose Michigan. I think a victory by 100K is the worst case scenario for Trump. 12% voting 3rd party is too much, I imagine Trump will get around 2.5M votes vs Clinton’s 2M.