In 2016, Donald Trump won the state of Florida by 120,000 votes (49.10% to 47.80%).
- Two-thirds of the votes cast in Florida were early votes, either “Vote-By-Mail” or early voting
- More Democrats voted early by 96,000 people
- On election day, since Trump won the state by 120,000 votes, I estimate Republican turned-out by approximately 200,000 more than Democrats
- Given that 70% of Florida voted early, I estimate that Republicans turned out on election day by +10% more than Democrats
If election day turnout ratio stays around +10% Republican and the current early voting trends hold, there will be a red wave in Florida, at least at the statewide level. As shown above, Democrats held a slight edge in voting early in 2016, but opposite is true this year:
In 2016, Dems had a 1 point turnout advantage going into election day, 39.8D vs 38.3R. This year, as things stand on October 26, Republicans have a 3 point lead (42.7R vs 39.7D). In 2016 Dems had more early votes and Reps had more Vote-By-Mail ballots. This year, so far, the GOP is winning both categories.
Obviously things can change, but the big take away (in my humble opinion) is that there is no blue wave, at least in Florida.