Since 2016, Trump has not lost any significant support, in fact, in the Republican party alone I know he has gained support. If Trump would have received the never-Trump vote in 2016, for example, he would probably have won Minnesota and maybe some other places. This time around you have Ben Shaprio, Glenn Beck, and people like that (and the followers they represent). In addition and more dangerous, are the public displays of black people supporting the President, most recently 50 cent. Also take note, if you watch a rally you see blacks and Latinos in the crowd. Car rallies and the different parades all have the same thing, a decent “minority” presence.
So from the point of view that Trump will get more votes in 2020 then 2016, I know a poll with a 10 point (even 5 points) is wrong.
I am going to watch three states, Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina and comment on what I see being reported.
So far, comparing to 2016 final early voting/mail in turnout, the following is going on:
- Turnout is up (or will most likely be up by election day) in each state
- Many more Dems are voting by mail, they are beating Rs in all three states
- Rs are winning the in-person early voting in each state, which (for each state) did not happen in 2016
What it looks like to me is that a significant number of Democrats that would typically vote in person switched to an absentee / mail in ballot and sent it as soon as possible. I am assuming that those are die-hards and going forward the Dem mail in “turnout” will slow, the Republican ballots will come in at a steady pace, but the turnout on election day will be extremely light for Democrats and similar to 2016 for Republicans.
It looks like over 1 million Dems switched to mail in voting. In 2016, both parties had about 1.3M absentee ballots sent out. This year, the Dems have 2.6M verse the Republican’s receiving 1.8M absentee ballots. The Democrats only increase their party registration rolls by 300K (5.2M vs 4.9M in 2016), while the Republicans increased by over half a million (5M+ Republicans in 2020). So do a little math:
- Dems gained 300K new voters, 1.3M more absentee voters
- 1.3M – 300K = 1,000,000. Will the Dems get 1M less in person votes than 2016?
- Meanwhile Reps gained 450K new voters, 500K more absentee voters
- 500K – 450K = 50,000. Will Republicans get only 50K less in person votes?