Early voting and absentee ballot returns show little change from 2016 percentages (Trump won counties are performing a little better than 2016): Trump won counties are turning out at almost 1/2% better and Hillary won counties are the opposite.  Not good news for the blue wave since Donald Trump won Tennessee by 16 points (61% … Continue reading No Blue Wave in Tennessee According to Early Voting and Absentee Ballot Returns – Slight Uptick for Republicans

Donald Trump won the state of Georgia by over 200K votes (50.4% to 45.3%).  Early voting data for the state does not break down returned ballots by political party, so I cannot say how many Republicans and Democrats returned ballots so far, however, I can match the returns to counties Trump won and that Hillary … Continue reading An Uptick in Trump Won Georgia Counties – Hillary Won Counties Down

A quick update on Florida early voting / vote-by-mail and Arizona absentee ballot returns.  Republicans are out performing Democrats in both states. Florida (Trump won by 120K votes): Democrats won the early voting battle in 2016 by 96K votes (40% of early votes were cast by Dems to the Repubs 38%) In 2018, as of … Continue reading Arizona, Florida Republicans Out-Pacing Democrats in Early Voting Exceeding 2016 Percentages

As I look at early voting and mailed absentee ballots in different states, a common theme is taking shape:  Republicans are voting more than Democrats, especially when you compare the percentages to what we saw in 2016: Florida Results Arizona Results The trend is the same for Hamilton County, OH. In 2016, Donald Trump won … Continue reading Bad News For Democrats in Hamilton County OH-Republicans Submitting More Absentee Ballots No Blue Wave

Things are not looking good for Democrats in the coming election.  As shown in previous posts, Republicans are winning the Florida early voting fight.  In Arizona the situation is even worse.  In 2016 Trump won the state.  One of the big hopes for Democrats prior to election day was that they closed the early voting … Continue reading No Blue Wave In Arizona – Republicans Are Out-Doing Democrats in Early Voting Big Time

As of October 29 at 10:07 AM, Republican voters have voted early or returned Vote-By-Mail ballots at a higher rate than Democrats in Florida.  The Democrats picked up some ground, but are still 55K votes behind the Republicans.  This is significant because in the 2016 general election Democrats turned out more voters in the early … Continue reading Update – Florida Early Voting Republicans Hold Edge Over Democrats by 55K voters

In 2016, Donald Trump won the state of Florida by 120,000 votes (49.10% to 47.80%). Two-thirds of the votes cast in Florida were early votes, either "Vote-By-Mail" or early voting More Democrats voted early by 96,000 people On election day, since Trump won the state by 120,000 votes, I estimate Republican turned-out by approximately 200,000 … Continue reading Florida Early Voting Shows Republicans Are Out Performing Democrats, Up from 2016

In the Michigan Senate race John James is trying to unseat incumbent Debbie Stabenow.  The polls claim it is a long shot and that Mr. James does not really have a chance of winning, the RCP average has him down by 16.3.  I recently posted on some of the polls, which you can read about … Continue reading Michigan Senate Race – John James Has a Good Chance to Beat Senator Debbie Stabenow

A new Mitchell Research poll shows John James moved up 4 points and is now 9 points behind incumbent Senator Debbie Stabenow (51% to 42%).  Other polls have huge gaps between the two candidates, but this is the second Mitchell Research poll conducted, the previous one showed Stabenow with a 13 point lead (54% to … Continue reading Michigan Senate Race Tightening – Poll Shows John James Closing in on Senator Debbie Stabenow

John James is running for the United States Senate in Michigan against Democrat incumbent Debbie Stabenow.  Among other recent events, John James held a rally in Grandville, Michigan on Saturday October 6th. About 300 people showed up to support his campaign. Polls currently show a major uphill battle for candidate John James.  The realclearpolitics.com average as … Continue reading Will John James Become Michigan’s First Black Senator?