Youth Turnout in Michigan Appears to be WAY Down in Mail In Ballots

In 2016 when Trump upset Hillary in Michigan, according to exit polls the only age Demographic she carried was the 18-29 group, the so-called youths.

2016 Election Age Demographics

2016Age GroupElectorate:ClintonTrump

Things are different in 2020, the seniors could break for Biden or who knows what, but the trend of age Demos are way off in mail in returns as of yesterday:

As of 10/27/2020:

2020Age GroupReturned BallotsProjected:BidenProjected: Trump
18-29       213,864.009.48%            121,902.48              72,713.76
30-44       292,676.0013%            128,777.44            140,484.48
45-64       723,682.0032%            318,420.08            376,314.64
65+   1,025,058.0045%            481,777.26            522,779.58
Total   2,255,280.00100.00%        1,050,877.26        1,112,292.46

If voter turnout gets to the high of 2008 (66.2%), that would equal an estimated 5,129,534 votes.  If 18-29 age groups want to get up to 21% like 2016, then they need to account for 863,338 of the remaining 2,874,254 estimated to be cast, or over 30%.  Furthermore, the 18-29 age group has a returned early voting ballot rate of around 56%, compared with between 74-85% for age groups above age 45. 

A few conclusions / observations:

  • The youth don’t care and are not voting for old man Biden
  • They are procrastinating sending their ballots in
  • Will overwhelmingly show up on Election Day?

Whatever it is, this is not the DNCs strategy. reported in March, 2020 that “the youth vote [went] missing in 2020 Democratic primaries.”  E&E News ( reported that Democrat voters in the 2020 Michigan primaries between 18-44 dropped to 37% from 45% in 2016.  
I decided to check another highly contested state to see if this is consistent: Pennsylvania. 2016 18-24 accounted for 8%.  Currently they are less than 6%.  Noteworthy that in PA, 18-24 went 50% for Clinton and 45% for Trump.  Who is more likely to vote this time?  A 19 year-old college liberal whose religion is Climate Change (notice Trump did not make climate change a big deal; the only meaningful time Biden did is when he claimed he’d end fracking and oil) or a 21 year-old working white young adult?


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