Towards the end of March, New York City appeared to be following in the footsteps of Italy’s hardest hit region, the Lombardy Province.

While New York City is, by far, the worst area of the United States, it still did not reach the levels of Lombardy.  The New York City Metro area is much denser than Lombardy and has a larger (double) population, but still lags behind in deaths.

Lombardy, Italy’s hardest hit region is 9,206 square miles and roughly 10,000,000: 9,722 deaths (as of 4/08/2020)

New York City Metro area, United States “epicenter” is 13,318 square miles, 21,000,000: 6,268 deaths (in the state) (as of 4/08/2020)

There are also many suggestions that Italy’s death toll is under counted.

The number of deaths in Italy peaked 13 days ago on March 27th:

If New York was two weeks behind Italy, it should peak today or tomorrow, which looks to be the case:

If New York was as bad as Lombardy, the metro area should have more than 16,000 deaths by now, which is more than the total Chinese Coronavirus deaths in entire United States, currently we are just under 15,000 nationwide.