A few historical data points to set the table:
- Hillary won Nevada: 539,260 to 512,058
- factoring in other candidates it was 47.9% to 45.5%
- Dems had a lead in registration: 668,699 (Dems) to 548,964 (Reps) and 468,744 (Inds)
- Reps had an edge in turnout: 74% (Reps) to 68% (Dems) and 58% (Inds)
From all kinds of polling data and the posture of the political parties everyone knows that in 2020 Dems are more likely to vote by mail and Reps are more fond of voting in person.
A New York Times poll released today claims Biden it winning Nevada 49% to 43%. I have written a few things here and there stating I do not trust polls, but there are interesting pieces of information that are hidden inside of the cross tabs.
The poll claims that 96% of Dems will vote for Biden and only 89% of Reps will vote for Trump. The poll also claims that Independents in Nevada are split, 42% to 42% with the rest undecided or voting 3rd party.
Note that in 2016 the exit polls had:
- 90% of Dems going for Hillary
- 88% of Reps going for Trump
- Independents breaking 50% for Trump and 37% for Hillary
This poll is much more favorable to Dems than 2016. Again, I do not think that is the case, among other things it could be the “hidden” Trump voter; for example, adding the 7% of undecided independents to the 42% going for Trump, you are right there with the CNN exits of 2016 in Nevada, but for now, lets take the poll at face value.
The poll asks who voted already vs who is still planning on voting, it confirms the stereo-type, Dems are voting early and Reps are voting in person and on election day:
As of this poll, starting on 10/23, 75% of Democrats have already voted VS only 59% of Republicans. Maybe even more shocking, is only 7% of Dems are planning on voting on election day vs 29% of Republicans. That is more than 3 times as many Rs than Ds:
This would not be alarming (for Democrats) if they were turning out early voters many times higher than Republicans, but as far as I have seen in Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada, that is not the case.
- Florida turnout as of today is 51.61% Dem to 47.47% Rep
- North Carolina turnout as of today is 52.03% Dem to 47.20% Rep
- Nevada turnout as of today is 43.57% Dem to 43.03% Rep
Also note that Republicans have been closing in on Dems everyday, in other words. Democrats had a huge jump from their die-hards mailing in ballots very early, but since that initial flood of votes, turnout is slowing while Republicans have been gaining day by day. Here is an example of turnout %s in Florida over the last week:
On October 21st, Dems were beating Reps by 8.5%, one week later that lead has been cut by more than half (down to 4.13%).
Back to Nevada and NYTs 6 point victory for Biden. Taking the already cast ballots / turnout (from official Nevada state data) and the %s of people who are still going to vote (from the poll) and the %s the parties will break for each candidate (per the poll), I get the following final vote tally, note that Trump, under these circumstance does a little better than he did against Hillary:
Remember this projection assumes that Trump does worse among Independents than he did in 2016 and Biden does better with his own party and independents than Hillary did.
Regardless of everything, the turnout shows the polls are wrong and this thing is much closer (in Nevada) than reported.