The short answer is yes. After going through some of the recent polling cross tabs, the data is inconsistent among each poll, but they all come out with a similar out come, Trump is losing. How and why he is losing is different from poll to poll. Some show Republican's turning against him, one claims … Continue reading Can Donald Trump Win Pennsylvania?
On October 28th Emerson released a Michigan poll showing Clinton beating Trump 50 to 43: At face level, this poll shows Trump is within striking distance, he is closer than Romney or McCain were with Michigan. Romney lost by 9.5% and McCain lost by 16%. However, Trumps chances are much better than this poll claims. … Continue reading Latest Michigan Emerson Poll Is Bogus
Hillary Clinton is Polling Poorly Among Black and White Voters Before I get in to the recent polls in Michigan, a little back-ground on presidential elections in the state. A few observations on these numbers: Traditionally Democrats have had the black vote locked up 2004 and 2008 had similar turnout, 82% white, ~12% black In … Continue reading Donald Trump Will Win Michigan
I do not know the answer, but it is suspicious to me. First, let’s look at a recent, but little older New Hampshire poll that shows desired media message that “Trump losing New Hampshire by 15 points!” This was a WMUR9 Granite State Poll, released on October 19th. The full poll can be found here: … Continue reading Why is Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump not in the latest New Hampshire poll?
A poll released today gives insight into the "Monster Vote". It is a congressional poll that shows a small edge for a Republican running for the House of Representatives against a Democrat incumbent in Minnesota's 8th district. The evidence in the poll for the monster vote is found by linking the poll data with some … Continue reading Donald Trump is Winning in Minnesota’s 8th – The Monster Vote