Early voting is over in Nevada and Florida (for the most part) and the final numbers show massive turnout for a mid-term election, numbers for both parties are almost tied with 2016 early voting turnout. In both Florida and Nevada, Democrats had a higher turnout, but the difference between parties is less than what it was in 2016.
Early on, Republicans held an advantage in Florida, but over the past week, Democrats made gains and finished with roughly 25K more votes. The good news for Republicans is that in 2016, when Trump won the state, Democrats turned out almost 100K more votes.
From a % stand point:
- Democrats turned out 78.63% of their 2016 voters
- Republicans got 80.65%.
If those numbers stay the same for election day turnout, Republicans should have no problems in Florida.
Nevada is similar to the situation in Florida, the biggest difference is that Trump lost the state by less than 2.5%. In 2016 Nevada early voting, Democrats won the early voting turnout battle by 45,000 voters. This time around, Republicans closed the gap to 23,000:
The % of 2016 turnout looks similar to Florida too:
- Democrat turnout is just 79.38% of their 2016 turnout
- Republican voters represent 84.15% of their 2016 turnout
Republicans can do well in both states, but that depends on you voting (if you have not already done so).