I do not know the answer, but it is suspicious to me. First, let’s look at a recent, but little older New Hampshire poll that shows desired media message that “Trump losing New Hampshire by 15 points!” This was a WMUR9 Granite State Poll, released on October 19th. The full poll can be found here: https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2016_fall_preselec101916.pdf
There are several things in this poll to suggest there was some behind the scenes tweaking. Remember, Trump won the New Hampshire Primary and won it big league. He received more votes than Romney in 2012 and McCain in 2008, yet he had more competitors than either preceding nominee. Hillary on the other hand, did worse than she did in 2008, less votes and a smaller % of the vote despite only 2 people in the race in 2016. Here is a recap showing the previous 3 primary elections:
Also, keep in mind:
- In 2012 Obama beat Romney by 5.6%.
- In 2008 Obama beat McCain by 9.6%
By this evidence alone, Hillary being up by 15% seems ridiculous. One thing that stands out to me is that in the poll 48% of likely voters identify as Democrats, while only 15% identify as Independents.
This poll also shows:
- Democrats winning the 2 congressional seats up
- 1st District: Shea-Porter 44 (D), Guinta 32 (R), +12 D
- 2nd District: Kuster 54 (D), Lawrence 24 (R), +30 D
- The Democrat winning the senate
- Hassan 48 (D), Ayotte 39 (R), +9 D
- The Democrat winning the governor’s race
- Ostern 44 (D), Sununu 38 (R), +6 D
Bad news for Trump and the Republicans on the down ballot…right?
Interestingly in a New Hampshire poll that came out today by WBZ (UMass), Clinton vs Trump was not mentioned: https://cbsboston.files.wordpress.com/2016/10/toplines_state_races.pdf
However the down ballot races show a completely different story:
- 1st Congressional District: Shea-Porter 41 (D), Guinta 37 (R), +4 D (8 point dif from the other poll)
- 2nd Congressional District: Kuster 53 (D), Lawrence 42 (R), +11 D (19 point dif from the other poll)
- Senate seat: Hassan 44 (D), Ayotte 48 (R), +4 R (10 point dif from the other poll)
- Governor: Ostern 44 (D), Sununu 43 (R), +1 D (5 point dif from the other poll)
Oddly there is no information on Donald Trump in this statewide poll. One more thing about this poll that is suspicious, Obama’s approval rating:
- 46% approve (23 strongly) and 51% disapprove (38% strongly)
- 47% have a favorable (31 very favorable) and 52% have an unfavorable (40% very unfavorable) opinion of Obama.
These two polls are widely off from each other. What would the WBZ/UMass poll have shown in a Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump match up? +4 Trump?