A poll released today gives insight into the “Monster Vote”. It is a congressional poll that shows a small edge for a Republican running for the House of Representatives against a Democrat incumbent in Minnesota’s 8th district.
The evidence in the poll for the monster vote is found by linking the poll data with some historical information. The polls headline is that the Republican is winning by 4 points, but reading into the article (http://kstp.com/politics/stewart-mills-rick-nolan-8th-congressional-race-kstp-survey-usa-poll/4299301/) you find some good nuggets of information, three big factors:
- Trump is beating Hillary by 12 points: “Our poll shows Republican Donald Trump with a 12-point lead over Clinton, 47 percent to 35 percent“
- Trump is winning with women: “leading Clinton 41 percent to 39 percent.”
- Dems are crossing over: “the number of Democrats dropped from 34 percent in 2014 to 27 percent in 2016. The number of independents jumped from 31 percent two years ago to 41 percent this year.“
You may say, this is one congressional district and it does not represent the whole country. Right it does not, but it does represent old fashion Democrats. Democrats who do not really support the party’s position on social issues, but have traditionally voted for Democrats because they believed the Democrat was for the “worker”. This district could be a microcosm of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa. According to Wikipedia, Minnesota’s 8th district has voted Democrat for the past 4 presidential elections, so why would it be polling +12 for Trump???