In February I helped Sundance at http://www.theconservativetreehouse.com predict primary and general election turnout for 2016. We successfully hit the primary turnout numbers for both D’s and R’s:
The prediction was not done just to show primary turnout, it was to show general election turnout, which I believe is a coming tsunami of voters who are fed up with our typical all talk no action politicians. After watching daily updates on key states posted by https://twitter.com/FeliceLepore2 I thought I would checkout if the Monster Vote is still on track.
Is the Monster Vote real? Will it push Trump to victory? Consider the evidence from early voting swing states:
The Monster Vote in Florida:
Early voting in Florida is up 45% over 2012. Most of those new votes are coming from non-Democrat voters (Republicans and Independents).
This is significant because the advantage on Election Day is with the Republicans, who are typically more likely to vote on that day.
The Monster Vote in North Carolina:
Total early voting is up 15% over 2012, but flat among Democrats.
Note that Romney won North Carolina because Republicans are more likely to vote on Election Day.
The Monster Vote in Nevada:
As of 11/5 early votes in Nevada are up by 9%, with most of the increases with Republicans and Independent voters.
The Monster Vote in Ohio:
Republicans and Independents are up, Democrats are flat (will probably exceed 2012 numbers by the end of today, but not at the rate of Rep’s and Ind’s).
As you can see from each table, Republican and Independent (“Other”) early votes are up higher than 2012. In some cases, Democrats are up, but not as much. These numbers, if they hold into Election Day turnout (election over election increase by party) mean that Trump will win!