The Monster Vote is Real…Tomorrow Will Show It

In February I helped Sundance at predict primary and general election turnout for 2016.  We successfully hit the primary turnout numbers for both D’s and R’s:

The prediction was not done just to show primary turnout, it was to show general election turnout, which I believe is a coming tsunami of voters who are fed up with our typical all talk no action politicians.  After watching daily updates on key states posted by I thought I would checkout if the Monster Vote is still on track.

Is the Monster Vote real?  Will it push Trump to victory?  Consider the evidence from early voting swing states:

The Monster Vote in Florida:

Early voting in Florida is up 45% over 2012.  Most of those new votes are coming from non-Democrat voters (Republicans and Independents).


This is significant because the advantage on Election Day is with the Republicans, who are typically more likely to vote on that day.

The Monster Vote in North Carolina:

Total early voting is up 15% over 2012, but flat among Democrats.


Note that Romney won North Carolina because Republicans are more likely to vote on Election Day.

The Monster Vote in Nevada:

As of 11/5 early votes in Nevada are up by 9%, with most of the increases with Republicans and Independent voters.


The Monster Vote in Ohio:

Republicans and Independents are up, Democrats are flat (will probably exceed 2012 numbers by the end of today, but not at the rate of Rep’s and Ind’s).


As you can see from each table, Republican and Independent (“Other”) early votes are up higher than 2012.  In some cases, Democrats are up, but not as much.  These numbers, if they hold into Election Day turnout (election over election increase by party) mean that Trump will win!


4 thoughts on “The Monster Vote is Real…Tomorrow Will Show It

  1. I voted early in FL for first time. I am usually an Election Day voter. I am hoping the surge in R voting in Florida and elsewhere is not like me -sure voters deciding to vote early instead of on Election Day as they typically do. Any data on that? I’m hoping the surge in I’s is the monster vote and most R’s are new voters not people changing their habits like me. Thoughts?


  2. Pingback: Flight 93 Election: Play by Play… – The Independence Day Edition… (Part 2) | The Deus Ex Machina Blog

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