An Uptick in Trump Won Georgia Counties – Hillary Won Counties Down

Donald Trump won the state of Georgia by over 200K votes (50.4% to 45.3%).  Early voting data for the state does not break down returned ballots by political party, so I cannot say how many Republicans and Democrats returned ballots so far, however, I can match the returns to counties Trump won and that Hillary won.

Overall, Trump won counties are up 1% vs 2016 and Hillary counties are down around 1%, in 2016 Hillary/Democrat won counties voted early at a rate of 52.61% to Trumps 47.39%.  This year the numbers are slightly down for Dems 51.74% vs an uptick for Republican counties, 48.26%.

GA_10312018

I grouped the counties into buckets based on the % of votes that each candidate won by, e.g. counties that voted for Trump at 81% to 90% are in their own bucket below:

GA_10312018_brokendown

  • 44% (349,254 of 779,389) of the “Hillary” side of the equation comes from counties that she barely won (50% to 60%)
  • 65% (471,911 of 727,062) of the “Trump” ballots come from counties were he won by over 71% or more (last two Trump buckets in the above chart)
  • 93% of Republican ballots come from counties that voted for Trump at a rate of 61% or more.

Pretending the middle of the road in all these categories (e.g. “50% to 60%” bucket turnout at 55% for the winner) the absentee voting in Georgia probably looks something like this:

Absentee Voted for Votes %
Trump 2016 1,261,087 52.09%
Hillary 2016 1,159,951 47.91%
Republican 2018 787,380 52.27%
Democrat 2018 719,071 47.73%

Republicans are performing slightly better in 2018 and Democrats are down, hardly a blue wave in Georgia.

 

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