Donald Trump won the state of Georgia by over 200K votes (50.4% to 45.3%). Early voting data for the state does not break down returned ballots by political party, so I cannot say how many Republicans and Democrats returned ballots so far, however, I can match the returns to counties Trump won and that Hillary won.
Overall, Trump won counties are up 1% vs 2016 and Hillary counties are down around 1%, in 2016 Hillary/Democrat won counties voted early at a rate of 52.61% to Trumps 47.39%. This year the numbers are slightly down for Dems 51.74% vs an uptick for Republican counties, 48.26%.
I grouped the counties into buckets based on the % of votes that each candidate won by, e.g. counties that voted for Trump at 81% to 90% are in their own bucket below:
- 44% (349,254 of 779,389) of the “Hillary” side of the equation comes from counties that she barely won (50% to 60%)
- 65% (471,911 of 727,062) of the “Trump” ballots come from counties were he won by over 71% or more (last two Trump buckets in the above chart)
- 93% of Republican ballots come from counties that voted for Trump at a rate of 61% or more.
Pretending the middle of the road in all these categories (e.g. “50% to 60%” bucket turnout at 55% for the winner) the absentee voting in Georgia probably looks something like this:
|Absentee Voted for||Votes||%|
Republicans are performing slightly better in 2018 and Democrats are down, hardly a blue wave in Georgia.