A quick update on Florida early voting / vote-by-mail and Arizona absentee ballot returns. Republicans are out performing Democrats in both states.
Florida (Trump won by 120K votes):
- Democrats won the early voting battle in 2016 by 96K votes (40% of early votes were cast by Dems to the Repubs 38%)
- In 2018, as of October 30, Republicans have a 62K vote advantage (42% Republican vs 40% Dem) which is a 150K vote swing from 2016 early voting.
Arizona (Trump won by 85K votes):
- In 2016 Republicans held a 6 point edge over Democrats in absentee ballot returns (40% to 34%)
- Republicans have increase that margin to 10 points in 2018, 43% to 33%
Things in Arizona and Florida are holding steady (no major increase for Dems over the last few days) and looking pretty good so far.