In the last 6 elections Trump has finished above the realclearpolitics average:
- NY: +5 (58%)
- PA: +10 (58%)
- RI: +12 (65%)
- MD: +9 (57%)
- CT: +5 (59%)
- DE: +8 (63%)
The averages in Indiana are: Trump 43%, Cruz 32%, and Kasich 15%. The average “polling to actual” difference from those six states is +8%. Given that Cruz supporters are even less motivated now, because he is more mathematically eliminated then he was before the NE primaries, I am guessing many Cruz people will not come out and vote, which will drive up Trumps % even higher.
If he gets the average 8% bump, he will exceed 50% of the vote in Indiana, but I’ll shoot for the moon and say 60% for Donald.
The thing that makes me want it to be a little closer is that I want Cruz to still be actively campaigning when the fight comes to California so we can also reject Ted Cruz.
Do you think Cruz will drop out if he gets Trump gets 60%? I could see it happening, it would be a logical thing to do, but it would have been a logical thing to do a while ago. He is ruining his career, especially by doing so much with crazy man Beck. Let’s see if Texas lets him serve in the senate again in 2018. Speaking of 2018, I forgot, he has only been in the senate for 4 years…why is he running for president for in the first place?