Can Donald Trump Win Pennsylvania?

The short answer is yes.  After going through some of the recent polling cross tabs, the data is inconsistent among each poll, but they all come out with a similar out come, Trump is losing.pa_polls

How and why he is losing is different from poll to poll.  Some show Republican’s turning against him, one claims he gets 1% of the black vote, some show his numbers with independents in the low 30’s.  It almost seems like the job of these polls is to show he is losing…or it could be pollsters are having a rough time.  Lots of this stuff is based on historical trends and I think this is an election that will defy the trends of the past.

I am not sure how, but I think this election will start a realignment similar to the Democrat party changing from the party of overt racism to the party of covert racism.  I am hoping at least it breaks the strangle hold Democrats have over black voters, but we shall see.

My personal opinion aside, I am looking at data and as I stated, the 5 polls shown above (screen shot from realclearpolitics) differ so it is hard to pin point a trend to lock on to.  Given the recent FBI bombs dropped onto the election, I thought it would be interesting to see who would abandon the Clinton camp.

1426337125943886625.gif

So lets take a look at party ID, and keep an eye on independent voters in particular.

In 2012 CNN exit polls show that independents in 2012 voted 45% for Obama to 50% for Romney.  Romney won that group, but Obama still grabbed a decent sized chunk.  Independents made up about 20% of the vote in 2012.  For the 5 polls pictured above, we have the following break down by independents:

average

Interestingly, the Emerson and CBS polls were taken after Trumps big speech in Gettysburg, indicating the event had an impression on independent voters.  Another interesting observation is that roughly 20% of these voters are supposedly voting 3rd party.  I do not know the ins and outs of PA, but it does not seem like Gary Johnson country to me.  I expect future polls (and actual elections results) to show these voters breaking for Trump by more than a 20% margin, in addition to Trump winning the state.

 

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