On October 28th Emerson released a Michigan poll showing Clinton beating Trump 50 to 43:
At face level, this poll shows Trump is within striking distance, he is closer than Romney or McCain were with Michigan. Romney lost by 9.5% and McCain lost by 16%.
However, Trumps chances are much better than this poll claims. In my previous post, I predicted Trump would win Michigan, see here. I had did not see this poll before I posted that prediction, in fact no sooner did I post it, I went to RCP and saw it! Tonight I looked into this poll and I learned that the weighting (per the poll write up) was reflecting 2012 turnout, including 16% turnout from blacks and only 71% for whites. Note that in 2012, the white vote was 77%, so unless they did some behind the scenes finagling, which is possible, they still under sampled whites. Historically in Michigan voter turnout is 12% black and 82% white (again, see my previous post).
Another odd thing in that poll, 14% of the poll respondents were in Detroit…Not the “Detroit area” (“West of city”, “North city” have their own line items in the poll), but Detroit proper. Detroit only accounts for 6 or 7% of the state’s population.
Unless the Dems are planning on doing some shady Garfield county voter turnout, I still believe Trump will win Michigan.