Latest Michigan Emerson Poll Is Bogus

On October 28th Emerson released a Michigan poll showing Clinton beating Trump 50 to 43:


At face level, this poll shows Trump is within striking distance, he is closer than Romney or McCain were with Michigan.  Romney lost by 9.5% and McCain lost by 16%.

However, Trumps chances are much better than this poll claims.  In my previous post, I predicted Trump would win Michigan, see here.  I had did not see this poll before I posted that prediction, in fact no sooner did I post it, I went to RCP and saw it!  Tonight I looked into this poll and I learned that the weighting (per the poll write up) was reflecting 2012 turnout, including 16% turnout from blacks and only 71% for whites.  Note that in 2012, the white vote was 77%, so unless they did some behind the scenes finagling, which is possible, they still under sampled whites.   Historically in Michigan voter turnout is 12% black and 82% white (again, see my previous post).

Another odd thing in that poll, 14% of the poll respondents were in Detroit…Not the “Detroit area” (“West of city”, “North city” have their own line items in the poll), but Detroit proper.  Detroit only accounts for 6 or 7% of the state’s population.

Unless the Dems are planning on doing some shady Garfield county voter turnout, I still believe Trump will win Michigan.





3 thoughts on “Latest Michigan Emerson Poll Is Bogus

  1. Pingback: Polls Showing Democrats Winning The House Resemble 2016 Presidential Polls | whatthedatasays

  2. Pingback: Will Republicans Win Senate Seats in Wisconsin and Minnesota? | whatthedatasays

  3. Pingback: Michigan Senate Race – John James Has a Good Chance to Beat Senator Debbie Stabenow | whatthedatasays

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s