Pajama Boy Jon Ossoff Will Not Win Georgia’s 6th District

Tom Price, the Health and Human Services Secretary under President Trump won re-election in Georgia’s 6th District by more than 20 points (www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2016_general/house/ga.html):

2016Results.GIF

This is a pretty heavy Republican district.  The hope for Democrats to win was in April during the first round of voting, since there were so may Republican’s running.  In that special election, if one candidate received over 50% of the vote, that person would win, otherwise the top two candidates would face a run off on June 20.  The Dems failed to get 50% after dumping over $8 million into the race.

Here are the results from the special election held in April (www.nytimes.com/elections/results/georgia-house-special-election-district-6):

2017_Special_Election_Results.GIF

Notice the long list of Republicans.  With one primary Democrat candidate carrying a $8 million war-chest and 10+ Republican’s running, the Dems failed to breach the 50% mark.

Looking at the race today, Republicans have one candidate to support, the party machine can focus their attention on that candidate.  Republicans have held the district for two decades, they have the infrastructure in place to “get out the vote”.  Also, Mike Pence is coming to Georgia twice in June, which will boost awareness of the election and the Republican candidate.  All this while Trump’s opposition is holding up bloody heads and talking about the Russians.

Current polling shows the fight is close (Dem +1.4 in the RCP average), and it might not be the 20% blowout Tom Price enjoyed, but it will not be a close election.  I give the Republicans at least a 5 point victory.

pajamaboy.GIF

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