In 2016, Trump surprised a lot of people (not me, see here, here, and here) by winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania and was close to taking Minnesota (he lost it by 1.5%). The reason for surprise? Look at the following polling data from the 2016 election cycle vs the actual result, they were not close.
Minnesota: Most polls show Clinton by at least 5. The last poll before the election, had Clinton winning by 11%, in the actual results, she only won by 1.5% a 9.5% difference.
Wisconsin: according to polls, Clinton should have won by 6.5 points, but in the end Trump won by almost 1%, polls were off by over 7 points.
Can the GOP win Wisconsin and Minnesota? Look at what is going on today that mirrors 2016?
- The media is hyping up the certain Democrat victory, the “Blue Wave” (remember the NYTs, 538 and others had 95% chance of Clinton winning)
- The media are trying to bring down Trump by smears (Kavanaugh, Stormy, Racist iui n 2018 vs Billy Bush tapes, fake tape accusations, etc. 2018)
- Trump is going over the media via twitter
- and Trump is working his butt off and his base is fired up
- 4 Rallies in the next week – http://www.donaldjtrump.com/rallies/
- He just finished 3 (West Virginia, Tennessee, Mississippi)
Now look at the Senate race polling from the same two states.
Minnesota: The Dem is up by 6.7%, (in 2016 polls were off by 9.5%)
Wisconsin: The Dem is up by 11%, applying the “2016” adjustment would mean the R is only down by less than 4 points
Note that neither state has had a “post Kavanaugh” poll. I will revisit this if and when those come out.