In 2016, Trump surprised a lot of people (not me, see here, here, and here) by winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania and was close to taking Minnesota (he lost it by 1.5%).  The reason for surprise?  Look at the following polling data from the 2016 election cycle vs the actual result, they were not close.

Minnesota:  Most polls show Clinton by at least 5.  The last poll before the election, had Clinton winning by 11%, in the actual results, she only won by 1.5% a 9.5% difference.

Wisconsin:  according to polls, Clinton should have won by 6.5 points, but in the end Trump won by almost 1%, polls were off by over 7 points.

Can the GOP win Wisconsin and Minnesota?  Look at what is going on today that mirrors 2016?

• The media is hyping up the certain Democrat victory, the “Blue Wave” (remember the NYTs, 538 and others had 95% chance of Clinton winning)
• The media are trying to bring down Trump by smears (Kavanaugh, Stormy, Racist iui n 2018 vs Billy Bush tapes, fake tape accusations,  etc. 2018)
• Trump is going over the media via twitter
• and Trump is working his butt off and his base is fired up
  • 4 Rallies in the next week – http://www.donaldjtrump.com/rallies/
  • He just finished 3 (West Virginia, Tennessee, Mississippi)

Now look at the Senate race polling from the same two states.

Minnesota:  The Dem is up by 6.7%, (in 2016 polls were off by 9.5%)

Wisconsin:  The Dem is up by 11%, applying the “2016” adjustment would mean the R is only down by less than 4 points

Note that neither state has had a “post Kavanaugh” poll.  I will revisit this if and when those come out.