Will Republicans Win Senate Seats in Wisconsin and Minnesota?

In 2016, Trump surprised a lot of people (not me, see here, here, and here) by winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania and was close to taking Minnesota (he lost it by 1.5%).  The reason for surprise?  Look at the following polling data from the 2016 election cycle vs the actual result, they were not close.

Minnesota:  Most polls show Clinton by at least 5.  The last poll before the election, had Clinton winning by 11%, in the actual results, she only won by 1.5% a 9.5% difference.

2016_Min

Wisconsin:  according to polls, Clinton should have won by 6.5 points, but in the end Trump won by almost 1%, polls were off by over 7 points.

2016_Wis

Can the GOP win Wisconsin and Minnesota?  Look at what is going on today that mirrors 2016?

  • The media is hyping up the certain Democrat victory, the “Blue Wave” (remember the NYTs, 538 and others had 95% chance of Clinton winning)
  • The media are trying to bring down Trump by smears (Kavanaugh, Stormy, Racist iui n 2018 vs Billy Bush tapes, fake tape accusations,  etc. 2018)
  • Trump is going over the media via twitter
  • and Trump is working his butt off and his base is fired up

Image result for trump rallies 2018 lines tennessee

Now look at the Senate race polling from the same two states.

Minnesota:  The Dem is up by 6.7%, (in 2016 polls were off by 9.5%)

2018_Min

Wisconsin:  The Dem is up by 11%, applying the “2016” adjustment would mean the R is only down by less than 4 points

2018_Wis

Note that neither state has had a “post Kavanaugh” poll.  I will revisit this if and when those come out.

 

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