Things are not looking good for Democrats in the coming election. As shown in previous posts, Republicans are winning the Florida early voting fight. In Arizona the situation is even worse. In 2016 Trump won the state. One of the big hopes for Democrats prior to election day was that they closed the early voting … Continue reading No Blue Wave In Arizona – Republicans Are Out-Doing Democrats in Early Voting Big Time
As of October 29 at 10:07 AM, Republican voters have voted early or returned Vote-By-Mail ballots at a higher rate than Democrats in Florida. The Democrats picked up some ground, but are still 55K votes behind the Republicans. This is significant because in the 2016 general election Democrats turned out more voters in the early … Continue reading Update – Florida Early Voting Republicans Hold Edge Over Democrats by 55K voters
In 2016, Donald Trump won the state of Florida by 120,000 votes (49.10% to 47.80%). Two-thirds of the votes cast in Florida were early votes, either "Vote-By-Mail" or early voting More Democrats voted early by 96,000 people On election day, since Trump won the state by 120,000 votes, I estimate Republican turned-out by approximately 200,000 … Continue reading Florida Early Voting Shows Republicans Are Out Performing Democrats, Up from 2016
In the Michigan Senate race John James is trying to unseat incumbent Debbie Stabenow. The polls claim it is a long shot and that Mr. James does not really have a chance of winning, the RCP average has him down by 16.3. I recently posted on some of the polls, which you can read about … Continue reading Michigan Senate Race – John James Has a Good Chance to Beat Senator Debbie Stabenow
A new Mitchell Research poll shows John James moved up 4 points and is now 9 points behind incumbent Senator Debbie Stabenow (51% to 42%). Other polls have huge gaps between the two candidates, but this is the second Mitchell Research poll conducted, the previous one showed Stabenow with a 13 point lead (54% to … Continue reading Michigan Senate Race Tightening – Poll Shows John James Closing in on Senator Debbie Stabenow
John James is running for the United States Senate in Michigan against Democrat incumbent Debbie Stabenow. Among other recent events, John James held a rally in Grandville, Michigan on Saturday October 6th. About 300 people showed up to support his campaign. Polls currently show a major uphill battle for candidate John James. The realclearpolitics.com average as … Continue reading Will John James Become Michigan’s First Black Senator?
In 2016, Trump surprised a lot of people (not me, see here, here, and here) by winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania and was close to taking Minnesota (he lost it by 1.5%). The reason for surprise? Look at the following polling data from the 2016 election cycle vs the actual result, they were not close. … Continue reading Will Republicans Win Senate Seats in Wisconsin and Minnesota?
CNN has a new "generic congressional" poll out that states the Democrats will win back the house: Specifically with the CNN poll, of the 1003 people CNN questioned, Democrats were talked to more than Republicans (by 9 points, 34% dem, 25% rep, 40% neither), so it is no shock that the Dems won the poll … Continue reading Generic Congressional Polls – What Do They Mean?
The August jobs report showed good numbers in both the number of new jobs (+200K) and increased wages (up 2.9%). The average pay went up $0.77 per hour to $27.16, which is roughly $1500 per year, but that is only half of the story. If you combine the wage increase and the tax cuts, you … Continue reading Rising Wages Plus The Tax Cuts
Obsessing over polling headlines, the drudgereport.com has been hyping up the "blue wave" and specifically targeting Ted Cruz in Texas, for example: Drudge also headlined the other day something about Cruz being in "the fight of his life", which is odd, I thought running (and losing) against Trump in 2016 would have been a bigger … Continue reading Texas Senate Race, Ted Cruz Will Win and the Problem With The Polls