Latest Michigan Emerson Poll Is Bogus

On October 28th Emerson released a Michigan poll showing Clinton beating Trump 50 to 43: At face level, this poll shows Trump is within striking distance, he is closer than Romney or McCain were with Michigan.  Romney lost by 9.5% and McCain lost by 16%. However, Trumps chances are much better than this poll claims. … Continue reading Latest Michigan Emerson Poll Is Bogus

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Donald Trump Will Win Michigan

Hillary Clinton is Polling Poorly Among Black and White Voters Before I get in to the recent polls in Michigan, a little back-ground on presidential elections in the state. A few observations on these numbers: Traditionally Democrats have had the black vote locked up 2004 and 2008 had similar turnout, 82% white, ~12% black In … Continue reading Donald Trump Will Win Michigan

Why is Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump not in the latest New Hampshire poll?

I do not know the answer, but it is suspicious to me.  First, let’s look at a recent, but little older New Hampshire poll that shows desired media message that “Trump losing New Hampshire by 15 points!”  This was a WMUR9 Granite State Poll, released on October 19th.  The full poll can be found here: … Continue reading Why is Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump not in the latest New Hampshire poll?

Donald Trump is Winning in Minnesota’s 8th – The Monster Vote

A poll released today gives insight into the "Monster Vote".  It is a congressional poll that shows a small edge for a Republican running for the House of Representatives against a Democrat incumbent in Minnesota's 8th district. The evidence in the poll for the monster vote is found by linking the poll data with some … Continue reading Donald Trump is Winning in Minnesota’s 8th – The Monster Vote

The Trump Campaign Will Get Roughly 1,400 Delegates

My previous posting, “How Donald Trump Wins with No Contested Convention”, walked through the next 14 contests (including New York), showing a path to victory for Donald Trump.  I was purposely cautious with New York and the other North Eastern states.  That path to victory included only 68 delegates from New York, but as we … Continue reading The Trump Campaign Will Get Roughly 1,400 Delegates

Who Is a Stronger Candidate Donald Trump or Mitt Romney?

I found an article on the therightscoop.com titled “Even ROMNEY had more delegates than TRUMP at this point in 2012!!”.  Given my recent post, Donald Trump vs Mitt Romney vs John McCain, I thought "Oh no, maybe I was looking at the data wrong", because that is a pretty bold and telling title from the RS. … Continue reading Who Is a Stronger Candidate Donald Trump or Mitt Romney?