In the last 6 elections Trump has finished above the realclearpolitics average: NY: +5 (58%) PA: +10 (58%) RI: +12 (65%) MD: +9 (57%) CT: +5 (59%) DE: +8 (63%) The averages in Indiana are: Trump 43%, Cruz 32%, and Kasich 15%. The average "polling to actual" difference from those six states is +8%. Given … Continue reading Donald Trump Will Win Indiana Big! Sixty Percent?
My previous posting, “How Donald Trump Wins with No Contested Convention”, walked through the next 14 contests (including New York), showing a path to victory for Donald Trump. I was purposely cautious with New York and the other North Eastern states. That path to victory included only 68 delegates from New York, but as we … Continue reading The Trump Campaign Will Get Roughly 1,400 Delegates
First let’s take a look at the lay of the land. Trump currently sits about 200 delegates ahead of Cruz (742 vs 533) and has about 2M more votes (8.2M vs 6.2M). Also consider following facts and historical observations: There are 16 contests left All are primaries Many are in the North East (7) and … Continue reading How Donald Trump Wins With No Contested Convention
I found an article on the therightscoop.com titled “Even ROMNEY had more delegates than TRUMP at this point in 2012!!”. Given my recent post, Donald Trump vs Mitt Romney vs John McCain, I thought "Oh no, maybe I was looking at the data wrong", because that is a pretty bold and telling title from the RS. … Continue reading Who Is a Stronger Candidate Donald Trump or Mitt Romney?
John McCain (2008) vs Mitt Romney (2012) vs Donald Trump (2016) The following analysis will show that Trump is doing as well or better than the previous GOP “presumptive” nominees at this stage in the game. Things change over each election cycle, so comparing apples to apples is never 100%. There are several factors that … Continue reading Donald Trump vs Mitt Romney vs John McCain
I have heard the Trump is Hitler line over and over again, followed by some uneducated comparisons. Here are a few, that with a little knowledge of history and common sense you can easily do intellectual judo and flip it on them: Trump is a fascist If you think talking tough and threatening to enforce … Continue reading Trump is Hitler
What are the chances that Bernie can mount a come from behind victory? That is a tough question. My previous post, Can Ted Overtake Trump showed that Trump was much better situated then the current numbers showed and that Ted was not doing as well as his "stats" suggested, and the March 8 elections confirmed that. … Continue reading Can Bernie Sanders Beat Hillary Clinton?