In February I helped Sundance at http://www.theconservativetreehouse.com predict primary and general election turnout for 2016. We successfully hit the primary turnout numbers for both D’s and R’s: Original Post Successful Prediction The prediction was not done just to show primary turnout, it was to show general election turnout, which I believe is a coming tsunami … Continue reading The Monster Vote is Real…Tomorrow Will Show It
Republicans are Out Performing Democrats in Florida early voting and out pacing 2012 Republican Early Voting In 2012 Time Magazine and Politico both reported Democrats had an edge on early voting in Florida: Politico Time According to Politico the results were 43% Democrat, 40% Republican and a total of 4.3M ballots were cast or mailed in … Continue reading Monster Vote in Florida: Early Voting Data Prove Polls are using a Bad Methodology
The short answer is yes. After going through some of the recent polling cross tabs, the data is inconsistent among each poll, but they all come out with a similar out come, Trump is losing. How and why he is losing is different from poll to poll. Some show Republican's turning against him, one claims … Continue reading Can Donald Trump Win Pennsylvania?
On October 28th Emerson released a Michigan poll showing Clinton beating Trump 50 to 43: At face level, this poll shows Trump is within striking distance, he is closer than Romney or McCain were with Michigan. Romney lost by 9.5% and McCain lost by 16%. However, Trumps chances are much better than this poll claims. … Continue reading Latest Michigan Emerson Poll Is Bogus
Hillary Clinton is Polling Poorly Among Black and White Voters Before I get in to the recent polls in Michigan, a little back-ground on presidential elections in the state. A few observations on these numbers: Traditionally Democrats have had the black vote locked up 2004 and 2008 had similar turnout, 82% white, ~12% black In … Continue reading Donald Trump Will Win Michigan
I do not know the answer, but it is suspicious to me. First, let’s look at a recent, but little older New Hampshire poll that shows desired media message that “Trump losing New Hampshire by 15 points!” This was a WMUR9 Granite State Poll, released on October 19th. The full poll can be found here: … Continue reading Why is Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump not in the latest New Hampshire poll?
A poll released today gives insight into the "Monster Vote". It is a congressional poll that shows a small edge for a Republican running for the House of Representatives against a Democrat incumbent in Minnesota's 8th district. The evidence in the poll for the monster vote is found by linking the poll data with some … Continue reading Donald Trump is Winning in Minnesota’s 8th – The Monster Vote
In the last 6 elections Trump has finished above the realclearpolitics average: NY: +5 (58%) PA: +10 (58%) RI: +12 (65%) MD: +9 (57%) CT: +5 (59%) DE: +8 (63%) The averages in Indiana are: Trump 43%, Cruz 32%, and Kasich 15%. The average "polling to actual" difference from those six states is +8%. Given … Continue reading Donald Trump Will Win Indiana Big! Sixty Percent?
My previous posting, “How Donald Trump Wins with No Contested Convention”, walked through the next 14 contests (including New York), showing a path to victory for Donald Trump. I was purposely cautious with New York and the other North Eastern states. That path to victory included only 68 delegates from New York, but as we … Continue reading The Trump Campaign Will Get Roughly 1,400 Delegates
First let’s take a look at the lay of the land. Trump currently sits about 200 delegates ahead of Cruz (742 vs 533) and has about 2M more votes (8.2M vs 6.2M). Also consider following facts and historical observations: There are 16 contests left All are primaries Many are in the North East (7) and … Continue reading How Donald Trump Wins With No Contested Convention