On October 28th Emerson released a Michigan poll showing Clinton beating Trump 50 to 43: At face level, this poll shows Trump is within striking distance, he is closer than Romney or McCain were with Michigan.  Romney lost by 9.5% and McCain lost by 16%. However, Trumps chances are much better than this poll claims. … Continue reading Latest Michigan Emerson Poll Is Bogus

Hillary Clinton is Polling Poorly Among Black and White Voters Before I get in to the recent polls in Michigan, a little back-ground on presidential elections in the state. A few observations on these numbers: Traditionally Democrats have had the black vote locked up 2004 and 2008 had similar turnout, 82% white, ~12% black In … Continue reading Donald Trump Will Win Michigan

I do not know the answer, but it is suspicious to me.  First, let’s look at a recent, but little older New Hampshire poll that shows desired media message that “Trump losing New Hampshire by 15 points!”  This was a WMUR9 Granite State Poll, released on October 19th.  The full poll can be found here: … Continue reading Why is Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump not in the latest New Hampshire poll?

A poll released today gives insight into the "Monster Vote".  It is a congressional poll that shows a small edge for a Republican running for the House of Representatives against a Democrat incumbent in Minnesota's 8th district. The evidence in the poll for the monster vote is found by linking the poll data with some … Continue reading Donald Trump is Winning in Minnesota’s 8th – The Monster Vote

In the last 6 elections Trump has finished above the realclearpolitics average: NY: +5 (58%) PA: +10 (58%) RI: +12 (65%) MD: +9 (57%) CT: +5 (59%) DE: +8 (63%) The averages in Indiana are: Trump 43%, Cruz 32%, and Kasich 15%.  The average "polling to actual" difference from those six states is +8%.  Given … Continue reading Donald Trump Will Win Indiana Big! Sixty Percent?